United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 10 billion by the end of the century. On the other hand, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100. A shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.
The world population will keep on rising:
- 2030: 8.5 billion
- 2050: 9.7 billion
- 2100: 10.9 billion
In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100.
Main demographic factors:
- higher life expectancies,
- migration rates,
- lower fertility rates.
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