What is happening with the global trade?


The pandemic has shocked and impacted international trade quite heavily. It hasnโ€™t been this impacted since the Great Depression in 1930s. Global trade in 2020 is projected to decline by 20% according to Mckinsey and Company baseline scenario for economic recovery, and it is not projected to regain its 2019 absolute level of $18 trillion until 2023.

The biggest shifts will be:

  • Two-way trade between the US and China in 2023 will have shrunk by around 15%, or about $128 billion, from 2019 levels. Trade between the US and the EU will continue to grow, but at a sharply lower rate from the $135 billion surge from 2015 through 2019.
  • EU trade with China will have declined by about $30 billion from 2019 through 2023, after growing by $124 billion in the previous four-year period. EU trade with India and South America will flatten.
  • Southeast Asia will continue to be one of the strongest gainers, increasing two-way trade by around $22 billion with the EU, $26 billion with the US, and $41 billion with China by the end of 2023, but still at a slower pace than the earlier four-year period.


Mark Kalin

Achiever, Competition, Futuristic, Maximizer, Significance



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